A methodology to evaluate combat potential and military force effectiveness for decision support

Combat potential evaluation and the relative effectiveness of military force against an adversary have been the focus of studies by analysts and defence planners for net assessment, military balance and formulating appropriate policies for acquisition. As the number and nature of variables and factors involved in the decision making process combine tangible and intangible measures and the criteria for defining success is predominantly scenario dependent, such analysis typically is classified under multi-criteria decision making methods. Existing methods of evaluations are classified as static or dynamic depending upon the approach taken by the analyst. Static approaches evaluate pre-combat force capability by simple arrays of numerical force elements at a given time or by index number aggregation of diverse force elements. Dynamic approaches employ a combat analysis model and input a value to each weapon system based upon its casualty producing / damage causing capability relative to that of other weapon systems, in a particular combat environment. In this paper, we propose a Multi-Attribute Utility Theory approach where the weights are given by Analytic Hierarchy Process method to evaluate the weapon system's static combat potential and use a wargaming simulator to evaluate the dynamic combat potential. These values obtained for the army, navy and air force resources are then combined to obtain the joint force potentials for a given combat scenario.