The dynamics of conspiracy theories on social media from the diffusion of innovations perspective: the moderating role of time

Purpose The persistence and virality of conspiracy theories online have raised significant concerns. This study revisits Rogers’ Diffusion of Innovations theory to examine the spread of conspiracy theories on social media, specifically focusing on how factors influencing their diffusion evolve over time. Design/methodology/approach The study analyzes over 1.18 million COVID-19-related tweets using a combination of natural language processing, social network analysis and machine learning techniques. It explores the dynamic roles of novelty, content negativity, influencers, echo chamber members and social bots in the diffusion of conspiracy theories. Findings The results indicate that novelty, influencers, echo chamber members and social bots are positively associated with the spread of conspiracy theories. The initial dissemination of conspiracy theories is primarily driven by content novelty and influencer involvement. Over time, the perpetuation of these theories becomes increasingly influenced by content negativity and the involvement of echo chamber members and social bots. Social bots serve as important connectors within echo chambers and their removal significantly reduces network cohesion. Practical implications The findings provide practical guidance for social media platforms and policymakers in monitoring diffusion patterns and applying targeted interventions. Originality/value This study introduces a time-sensitive approach to understanding the spread of conspiracy theories on social media. By identifying the key drivers at different stages of the diffusion process, this study offers valuable insights for developing effective strategies to counteract the proliferation of conspiracy theories at various points in their lifecycle.