Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Variations in Cropland Water-Use Efficiency and Influencing Factors in Xinjiang Based on the XGBoost–SHAP Model

In arid regions with limited water resources, improving cropland water-use efficiency (WUEc) is crucial for maintaining crop production. This study aims to investigate how changes in meteorological and vegetation factors affect WUEc in drylands and to identify its primary drivers, which are essential for understanding how cropland ecosystems respond to complex environmental changes. Using remote sensing data, we analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of WUEc in Xinjiang from 2002 to 2022 by applying STL decomposition, Sen’s slope combined with the Mann–Kendall test, and an XGBoost–SHAP model, quantifying its key controlling factors. The results indicate that from 2002 to 2022, WUEc in Xinjiang showed an overall declining trend. Prior to 2007, WUEc increased at 0.05 gC·m−1·m−2·a−1, after which it fluctuated downward at −0.01 gC·m−1·m−2·a−1. Intra-annual peaks consistently occurred in May and during September–October. Spatially, WUEc exhibited significant heterogeneity, increasing from south to north, with 53.26% of the region showing declines. Temperature (T) and leaf area index (LAI) emerged as the primary meteorological and vegetation drivers, respectively, influencing WUEc change in 45.7% and 17.6% of the area. Both variables were negatively correlated with WUEc, with negative correlations covering 60% of the region for T and 83% for LAI. These findings provide scientific guidance for optimizing crop structure and water-resource management strategies in arid regions.