The impact of natural environment on human alveolar echinococcosis: A township-level modeling study in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Human alveolar echinococcosis (AE) is a lethal helminthic infection caused by the tapeworms Echinococcus multilocularis. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has the greatest endemicity of human AE globally, but the natural risk factors and its impact mechanism are still unclear. Generalized linear models and generalized additive models are used to select key linear and non-linear environmental factors associated with cases of AE. The interactive effect between different factors is identified using concurvity test. From fifty-nine variables analyzed, four key factors and one interaction term were identified associated with AE. Considering interaction terms between climatic and geographical landscape factors can significantly improve model fitting. Minimum winter precipitation, percentage of grassland cover, and minimum elevation have significant positive linear relationship with human AE incidence. The relationship between maximum summer precipitation and human AE is non-linear with high AE incidence associated with moderate precipitation. The interaction term of maximum summer precipitation and number of patches of grassland on human AE indicates that human AE incidence is highest when both factors were high. The climatic and landscape risk factors together are associated with the local transmission of human AE in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. This study provides a scientific basis for human intervention in AE from fine-scale ecological environment.