Imbalance of inter-provincial forest carbon sequestration rate from 2010 to 2060 in China and its regulation strategy

Forest ecosystem, as a predominant component of terrestrial ecosystems in view of carbon sinks, has a high potential for carbon sequestration. Accurately estimating the carbon sequestration rate in forest ecosystems at provincial level, is a prerequisite and basis for scientifically formulating the technical approaches of carbon neutrality and the associated regulatory policies in China. However, few researches on future carbon sequestration rates (CSRs) for Chinese forest ecosystems for provincial-level regions (hereafter province) have been reported, especially for forest soils. In this study, we quantitatively assessed the carbon sequestration rates of existing forest ecosystems of all the provinces from 2010 to 2060 using the Forest Carbon Sequestration model (FCS), in combination with large quantities of field-measured data in China under three future climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). Results showed that CSRs across provinces varied from 0.01 TgC a−1 to 36.74 TgC a−1, with a mean of 10.09 ± 0.43 TgC a−1. Inter-provincial differences have been observed in forest CSRs. Regarding the spatial variations in CSRs on a unit area basis within provinces, the eastern region provinces have a larger capacity for sequestration than the western region, while the western region has greater CSR per unit GDP and per capita. Moreover, there are significant negative correlations between the CSRs per capita in each province and the corresponding GDP per capita, under the assumption that GDP per capita is constant in the future across provinces. In summary, there is a significant regional imbalance in CSR among provinces. Special technological and policy interventions are required to realize carbon sink potential sustainably. An overlap in China’s poorer areas and areas with stronger carbon sinks has indicated that existing policies to support traditional carbon trading are insufficient. Regulatory measures such as “regional carbon compensation” must be adopted urgently in line with the Chinese characteristics, so that people in western or underdeveloped regions can consciously strengthen forest protection and enhance forest carbon sinks through coordinated regional development while ensuring that China’s forests play a greater role in carbon neutrality strategies.