决策分析
证据推理法
决策支持系统
决策工程
管理科学
商业决策图
作者
Gary Klein,Roberta Calderwood,Donald G. MacGregor
出处
期刊:IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics
[Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers]
日期:1989-05-01
卷期号:19 (3): 462-472
被引量:824
摘要
A critical decision method is described for modeling tasks in naturalistic environments characterized by high time pressure, high information content, and changing conditions. The method is a variant of a J.C. Flanagan's (1954) critical incident technique extended to include probes that elicit aspects of expertise such as the basis for making perceptual discriminations, conceptual discriminations, typicality judgments, and critical cues. The method has been used to elicit domain knowledge from experienced personnel such as urban and wildland fireground commanders, tank platoon leaders, structural engineers, design engineers, paramedics, and computer programmers. A model of decision-making derived from these investigations is presented as the theoretical background to the methodology. Instruments and procedures for implementing the approach are described. Applications of the method include developing expert systems, evaluating expert systems' performance, identifying training requirements, and investigating basic decision research issues. >
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