Burden of silicosis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021: trend analysis of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years, and projections for the next 30 years

Silicosis, an occupational disease caused by chronic silica exposure, has a high global burden and limited treatment options. This study analyzed the epidemiological trends and future projections of silicosis based on data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD), aiming to provide data support for public health interventions. We extracted and analyzed the data on the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of silicosis, as well as the age-standardized rate (ASR) of silicosis from the GBD Study 2021. Using these data, we describe the trends in five dimensions: global, regional, national, age, and sex. We used Joinpoint regression software (V.5.2.0) to calculate the average annual percent changes (AAPCs) in the ASRs from 1990 to 2021. Silicosis trends from 2022 to 2050 were predicted using Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. From 1990 to 2021, the global incidence of silicosis, number of deaths, and DALYs showed an upward trend. However, the corresponding ASRs all showed decreasing trends, with AAPC values of -1.1% (-1.1% to -1.0%), -2.5% (-2.7% to -2.3%), and -2.5% (-2.7% to -2.3%), respectively. However, the burden of silicosis varied significantly across countries and regions, with China, South Africa, and Chile having a silicosis age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) well above the global average. In addition, the ASIR and ASDR of silicosis were generally higher among men. There were also differences between regions at different socioeconomic levels, with the DALYs burden of silicosis being lowest among males and females in low social demographic index (SDI) regions and highest among males in medium and high SDI regions. The BAPC model projected a gradual decrease in the silicosis burden from 2022 to 2050. Although the disease burden of silicosis showed a decreasing global trend from 1990 to 2021, it is still a global public health concern. Effective preventive and curative measures should be taken to address the challenges posed by silicosis and to protect the lives and health of workers.