Research on the competitiveness of the Arctic transportation route under the belt and road initiative

Abstract With the continuous improvement of the navigation environment of the Arctic routes, the commercialization potential of the Arctic routes is enhanced, which brings new challenges to the Suez Canal route and the China–Europe railway Express. In addition, geopolitical factors such as the Russia–Ukraine conflict and the Red Sea crisis have also brought some impact on the Eurasian transport pattern. In this context, the future trade and transportation between China and Europe will take on a new pattern. In order to study the transport competition pattern between China and Europe under the opening of the Arctic routes, this article takes into account the time‐value cost of goods and geopolitical factors, constructs a logit competition model, and quantitatively investigates the competitiveness of the Arctic route and the traditional routes of the “Belt and Road Initiative” using major international transportation hub cities in China. The results show that the types of cargo and the level of freight are important factors affecting the competitiveness of Arctic routes. Under the influence of geopolitics, the competitive advantage of the Arctic routes are highlighted.