Uncertainty quantification of the failure assessment diagram for flawed steel components in BS 7910:2019

The failure assessment line (FAL) describes the interaction between plastic failure and fracture of flawed steel components subjected to tension or bending. This paper quantifies the model uncertainty of the FAL as provided in the internationally used British Standard BS 7910:2019 by comparing the assessment with the actual failure load of 82 wide plate and 4 tubular joint tests. In line with findings of others, it is demonstrated that the accuracy of the assessment is significantly improved if the crack tip constraint is considered in the assessment. Irrespective of this crack tip constraint consideration, a non-negligible number of wide plate tests has a lower failure load than the one predicted by the FAL in BS 7910:2019, if based on three fracture toughness tests. A penalty or safety margin on the FAL is advocated to compensate for this. It appears advantageous to base the assessment on the average instead of the minimum of three equivalent fracture mechanics tests together with an associated (quantified) safety margin.