Association between long-term total sleep duration and physical activity trajectories and cardiovascular diseases among middle-aged and older adults: a 9-year longitudinal study

Background It remains unclear whether sleep duration and physical activity (PA) trajectories in middle-aged and older adults are associated with different risks of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). This study aimed to explore the trajectories of total sleep duration and PA among middle-aged and older Chinese adults and their impact on CVD risk. Methods This study was based on the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study. 12009 adults aged 45 years and older from five waves were included. CVD events were measured by self-reports of heart disease and stroke. We first used group-based trajectory modeling to identify total sleep duration and PA trajectories from 2011 to 2020, and then employed logistic regression models to analyze their risk for CVD. Results We identified three sleep duration and PA trajectories. The risk of heart disease increased by 33% (OR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.12–1.53) for the short sleep duration trajectory (vs. moderate sleep duration trajectory), by 40% (OR = 1.40, 95% CI: 1.06–1.84) for the high decreasing PA trajectory, and by 20% (OR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.01–1.42) for the low stable PA trajectory (vs. high stable PA trajectory), respectively. Similar results for stroke and CVD as the outcomes were also observed, but the higher risk of stroke in the high decreasing PA trajectory group was not statistically significant. The joint effects of sleep and PA showed lower risks of heart disease and stroke in trajectories with moderate or long sleep duration and high stable PA compared with short sleep duration and a low stable PA trajectory. Conclusions Short total sleep duration, high decreasing PA, and low stable PA trajectories could increase the risk of CVDs among middle-aged and older adults. Long-term moderate to long total sleep durations and high stable PA trajectories might be optimal for preventing CVDs.