Predicting downstream transport distance of fish eDNA in lotic environments

Abstract Environmental DNA (eDNA) is an effective tool for describing fish biodiversity in lotic environments, but the downstream transport of eDNA released by organisms makes it difficult to interpret species detection at the local scale. In addition to biophysical degradation and exchanges at the water–sediment interface, hydrological conditions control the transport distance. A new eDNA transport model described in this paper considers downstream retention and degradation processes in combination with hydraulic conditions and assumes that the sedimentation rate of very fine particles is a correct estimate of the eDNA deposition rate. Based on meta‐analyses of available studies, the particle size distribution of fish eDNA (PSD), the relationship between the sedimentation rate and the size of very fine particles in suspension, and the influence of temperature on the degradation rate of fish eDNA were successively modelled. After combining the results in a mechanistic‐based model, the eDNA uptake distances (distance required to retain 63.21% of the eDNA particles in the riverbed) observed in a compilation of previous experimental studies were correctly simulated. eDNA degradation is negligible at low flow and temperature but has a comparable influence to background transfer when hydraulic conditions allow a long uptake distance. The wide prediction intervals associated with the simulations reflect the complexity of the processes acting on eDNA after shedding. This model can be useful for estimating eDNA detection distance downstream from a source point and discussing the possibility of false positive detection in eDNA samples, as shown in an example.