Evolution of Tropical Cyclone Characteristics and Forecast Assessment

Abstract : The primary long-term goal is to understand how variabilities in the large-scale atmospheric environment influence tropical cyclone frequency, track and intensity characteristics. Because a tropical cyclone throughout its life cycle has the potential for impacting many fleet components, the research program is designed to apply to developing, mature, and decaying tropical cyclones. During the initial stages of tropical cyclone development, the structure and track characteristics can exhibit large variabilities that pose difficult forecast situations. Because decaying tropical cyclones often transition to fast-moving and rapidly-developing extratropical cyclones that may contain gale- or storm-force winds, special attention is given to improving understanding and prediction of the extratropical transition phase of a decaying tropical cyclone. A secondary long-term goal of this research is to measure the improvement in the utility of the tropical cyclone forecast products to shore- and sea-based assets that may be gained from increased understanding of the relationships between tropical cyclones and the large-scale environment in which they exist.