Natural Growth Population Projections

With population projections future population size changes using present and past parameters and trends are estimated. The basic assumption of the underlying mathematical model is that some crucial demographic variables such as age-specific fertility and survival ratios remain unchanged. Therefore population projections serve as warning about future demographic processes if the existing parameters remain unchanged. We will concetrate on natural growth population projections. They forecast changes in the population structure based on fertility, mortality and population age distribution, without considering migrations. First we describe an annual model of population projections by natural increase which is considered in more detail in [1]. Then we describe, how to use this model, if data on one-year age groups are not available. These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.