Justification of seismic triggering of large prehistoric rockslides in Zagros (Iran) and Greater Caucasus (Russia)

Abstract Justification of seismic triggering of large prehistoric rockslides that originated on the slopes of anticlinal ridges armoured by thick carbonate units has been performed by examples of the gigantic Seimareh rockslide in Zagros (Iran) and two structurally similar, though much smaller rockslides in Dagestan (Greater Caucasus, Russia). Such structural and geomorphic conditions allow precise reconstruction of the pre-slide topography of the studied sites that increases reliability of their back analysis significantly. Linear dimensions of landslides are much larger than thickness of the siding block that makes the simplified 2D numerical modelling of these slopes quite realistic. The pseudostatic analysis performed at the first step confirmed that the study slopes could not fail without strong earthquakes. However, further dynamic analysis performed by use of the Newmark method allowed estimating characteristics of strong motions that could result in formation of rockslides that had converted in long runout rock avalanches. Possible uncertainties and open problems are discussed as well.