Understanding the spatial relationships and drivers of ecosystem service supply-demand mismatches towards spatially-targeted management of social-ecological system

Managing relationships among ecosystem service supplies and demands and manipulating certain drivers to maintain well-balanced ecosystem service suites are key challenges for ensuring sustainable social-ecological systems. However, comprehensive research on the spatial relationships and determinants of ecosystem service supply-demand mismatches remains rare. Therefore, we assessed trade-offs and synergies among bundled ecosystem service supply-demand balances and their underlying drivers in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Four distinct ecosystem service bundles revealed diverse ecosystem service supply-demand mismatches among different locations associated with various trade-offs and synergies. Building weighted networks specifically for different bundles promoted innovative understandings of the emergent properties of ecosystem services and unveiled the topological ecosystem service differences, synergistic interdependences among these services and essential umbrella ecosystem services for improving multiple ecosystem service supply-demand states. Social factors severely increased ecosystem service deficits in some bundles, while biophysical factors more critically improved ecosystem service surpluses in other bundles. Besides, the similar nonlinear responses of both the overall supply-demand states of multiple services and the supply-demand relationships of umbrella ecosystem services to their shared drivers in most bundles further supported the important roles of umbrella services in improving ecosystem service multifunctionality. Our study emphasized the significance of considering the spatial relationships and drivers of ecosystem service supply-demand mismatches when targeting effective spatial policies for realizing the sustainability of social-ecological systems and could provide useful guidance for addressing complex human-nature interdependencies.