Why Parents’ Fertility Plans Changed in China: A Longitudinal Study

Abstract This article examines the fertility desires, intentions and outcomes of 406 alumni of a middle school in Dalian city, Liaoning province, when they were surveyed in 2014–2015 (during their late 20s and early 30s). It also looks at how and why the fertility desires, plans and outcomes of a 47-member representative subsample and their spouses changed from year to year as they moved through their 20s and 30s between 2008 and 2021. Although most respondents started out wanting two children, longitudinal interviews with the representative subsample and their spouses showed that most gradually resigned themselves to having no more than one child. This was because they felt unable to provide two children with the high standard of living and childcare that their own experiences as singletons had led them to consider essential for proper childrearing.