Carbonate chemistry fitness landscapes inform diatom resilience to future perturbations

Marine diatoms are an abundant and ecologically important phytoplankton group susceptible to changing environmental conditions. Currently available data assessing diatom responses focus on empirical comparisons between present-day and future conditions, rather than exploring the mechanisms driving these responses. Here, we conducted high-resolution growth experiments to map the fitness of diatoms across broad carbonate chemistry landscapes. Our results reveal species-specific carbonate chemistry niches, which can be used to predict ecological shifts between species under changing conditions driven by ocean acidification or ocean alkalinity enhancement. The results demonstrate that changes in diatom fitness are almost exclusively driven by carbon dioxide and proton concentrations, with bicarbonate exerting no discernible effect. Thus, current assumptions regarding the role of bicarbonate as a primary carbon source supporting diatom growth may be overestimated. This study presents a methodological and conceptual framework as a foundation for future studies to collate data capable of predicting species-specific responses and shifts in ecological niches driven by changes in marine carbonate chemistry.