METS-IR, a novel score to evaluate insulin sensitivity, is predictive of visceral adiposity and incident type 2 diabetes

Objective We developed a novel non-insulin-based fasting score to evaluate insulin sensitivity validated against the euglycemic–hyperinsulinemic clamp (EHC). We also evaluated its correlation with ectopic fact accumulation and its capacity to predict incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D). Design and methods The discovery sample was composed by 125 subjects (57 without and 68 with T2D) that underwent an EHC. We defined METS-IR as Ln((2*G 0 )+TG 0 )*BMI)/(Ln(HDL-c)) (G 0 : fasting glucose, TG 0 : fasting triglycerides, BMI: body mass index, HDL-c: high-density lipoprotein cholesterol), and compared its diagnostic performance against the M-value adjusted by fat-free mass (MFFM) obtained by an EHC. METS-IR was validated in a sample with EHC data, a sample with modified frequently sampled intravenous glucose tolerance test (FSIVGTT) data and a large cohort against HOMA-IR. We evaluated the correlation of the score with intrahepatic and intrapancreatic fat measured using magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Subsequently, we evaluated its ability to predict incident T2D cases in a prospective validation cohort of 6144 subjects. Results METS-IR demonstrated the better correlation with the MFFM ( ρ = −0.622, P < 0.001) and diagnostic performance to detect impaired insulin sensitivity compared to both EHC (AUC: 0.84, 95% CI: 0.78–0.90) and the SI index obtained from the FSIVGTT (AUC: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.53–0.81). METS-IR significantly correlated with intravisceral, intrahepatic and intrapancreatic fat and fasting insulin levels ( P < 0.001). After a two-year follow-up, subjects with METS-IR in the highest quartile (>50.39) had the highest adjusted risk to develop T2D (HR: 3.91, 95% CI: 2.25–6.81). Furthermore, subjects with incident T2D had higher baseline METS-IR compared to healthy controls (50.2 ± 10.2 vs 44.7 ± 9.2, P < 0.001). Conclusion METS-IR is a novel score to evaluate cardiometabolic risk in healthy and at-risk subjects and a promising tool for screening of insulin sensitivity.