Machine Learning Models to Predict Early Breakthrough of Recalcitrant Organic Micropollutants in Granular Activated Carbon Adsorbers

Granular activated carbon (GAC) adsorption is frequently used to remove recalcitrant organic micropollutants (MPs) from water. The overarching aim of this research was to develop machine learning (ML) models to predict GAC performance from adsorbent, adsorbate, and background water matrix properties. For model calibration, MP breakthrough curves were compiled and analyzed to determine the bed volumes of water that can be treated until MP breakthrough reaches ten percent of the influent MP concentration (BV10). Over 400 data points were split into training, validation, and testing sets. Seventeen variables describing MP, background water matrix, and GAC properties were explored in ML models to predict log₁₀-transformed BV10 values. Using the ML models on the testing set, predicted BV10 values exhibited mean absolute errors of ∼0.12 log units and were highly correlated with experimentally determined values (R² ≥ 0.88). The top three drivers influencing BV10 predictions were the air-hexadecane partition coefficient and hydrogen bond acidity (Abraham parameters L and A) of the MPs and the dissolved organic carbon concentration of the GAC influent water. The model can be used to rapidly estimate the GAC bed life, select effective GAC products for a given treatment scenario, and explore the suitability of GAC treatment for remediating emerging MPs.