Hypoxia-related and immune phenotype-related fusion model for non-invasive prognostication of hepatocellular carcinoma treated by TACE: a multicentre study

BACKGROUND: Survival outcomes after transarterial chemoembolisation (TACE) vary in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients, and existing prognostic scores and imaging models often lack generalisability and biological interpretability. OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a multimodal prognostication model for HCC that allows for a precise assessment of survival outcomes of HCC patients receiving TACE therapy. DESIGN: This study enrolled 1448 HCC patients, including a TACE cohort (n=1349), a biomarker subset from a randomised trial (n=41), a single-cell RNA sequencing cohort and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) HCC cohort (n=50). Pre-treatment contrast-enhanced CT images were used to construct deep learning and conventional radiomic models. The early-fusion and late-fusion models (LFMs) were compared, and a clinical-radiologic model (CRM) was formed by integrating the better-performing LFM with clinical variables. Using TCGA data and single-cell transcriptomic profiles, the differences between high-score and low-score groups in tumour immune microenvironment, cellular functional states and key signalling pathways were investigated. RESULTS: The CRM effectively stratified patients' survival across multiple independent cohorts and achieved more granular risk stratification than the existing clinical models. Multi-omic analyses revealed that in the LFM high-score group, myelocytomatosis oncogene was activated, epithelial-mesenchymal transition enhanced, glycolysis upregulated and hypoxia pathway activated. Single-cell transcriptomic data confirmed that virtually all cell types in high-risk patients scored high in hypoxia, and cytotoxic T cells had a reduced cytotoxic activity. CONCLUSION: The CRM model can non-invasively predict the prognosis of HCC patients treated by TACE therapy.