Left ventricular hypertrophy phenotype to predict incident atrial fibrillation: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) has been shown to be associated with the occurrence of atrial fibrillation (AF). However, the predictive value of the LVH phenotype for incident AF remains uncertain. This study aimed to investigate the predictive value of LVH phenotype for incident AF.This study utilized the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) data. LVH was defined by cardiac magnetic resonance measured LV mass index. Isolated LVH was determined as LVH without elevated cardiac biomarker and malignant LVH was determined as LVH with at least 1 elevated biomarker. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed to calculate areas under the curves (AUC) for predicting AF. A total of 4983 community-dwelling participants were included, with a mean age of 61.5 years. 279 (5.6 %) had isolated LVH, and 222 (4.5 %) had malignant LVH. During a median follow-up of 8.5 years, 272 incident AF was observed. Compared to participants without LVH and elevated cardiac biomarkers, those with isolated LVH (HR, 1.82; 95 % CI, 1.03-3.20) and malignant LVH (HR, 4.13; 95 % CI, 2.77-6.16) had a higher risk of incident AF. Malignant LVH carried a 1.5-fold increased risk of AF compared to isolated LVH (HR: 2.48, 95 % CI: 1.30-4.73). Including the LVH phenotype in the CHARGE-AF model improved model discrimination (AUC increase: 0.03, p < 0.001).The risks of AF incidence varied across LVH phenotypes. Malignant LVH carried the highest risk among LVH phenotypes. LVH phenotype provides incremental predictive value over the variables included in the CHARGE-AF model.