Domino Effect Risk Modeling and Analysis of Tank Area Accidents Based on Accident Chain and Multifactor Coupling

To explore the propagation laws of the domino effect in tank areas, this paper constructs a domino effect analysis model based on the unit accident chain and multifactor synergistic effect. The model not only evaluates the contribution of the unit accident chain to domino effect development but also analyzes the enhanced destructive effect when multiple factors interact. From the perspective of energy accumulation, the heat dose criterion is used to dynamically update the conditional probability tables in the dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), thus more realistically simulating the evolution of the domino effect. It overcomes the limitation of the traditional DBN that can only analyze the domino effect at specific time points and can identify critical vulnerabilities more accurately, providing timely decision support for reducing the impact of accidents. The effectiveness of this method is verified through case studies, confirming its reliability and practicality in analyzing the propagation patterns of the domino effect.