A Deep Learning System to Predict Epithelial Dysplasia in Oral Leukoplakia

Oral leukoplakia (OL) has an inherent disposition to develop oral cancer. OL with epithelial dysplasia (OED) is significantly likely to undergo malignant transformation; however, routine OED assessment is invasive and challenging. This study investigated whether a deep learning (DL) model can predict dysplasia probability among patients with leukoplakia using oral photographs. In addition, we assessed the performance of the DL model in comparison with clinicians’ ratings and in providing decision support on dysplasia assessment. Retrospective images of leukoplakia taken before biopsy/histopathology were obtained to construct the DL model ( n = 2,073). OED status following histopathology was used as the gold standard for all images. We first developed, fine-tuned, and internally validated a DL architecture with an EfficientNet-B2 backbone that outputs the predicted probability of OED, OED status, and regions-of-interest heat maps. Then, we tested the performance of the DL model on a temporal cohort before geographical validation. We also assessed the model’s performance at external validation with opinions provided by human raters on OED status. Performance evaluation included discrimination, calibration, and potential net benefit. The DL model achieved good Brier scores, areas under the curve, and balanced accuracies of 0.124 (0.079–0.169), 0.882 (0.838–0.926), and 81.8% (76.5–87.1) at testing and 0.146 (0.112–0.18), 0.828 (0.792–0.864), and 76.4% (72.3–80.5) at external validation, respectively. In addition, the model had a higher potential net benefit in selecting patients with OL for biopsy/histopathology during OED assessment than when biopsies were performed for all patients. External validation also showed that the DL model had better accuracy than 92.3% (24/26) of human raters in classifying the OED status of leukoplakia from oral images (balanced accuracy: 54.8%–79.7%). Overall, the photograph-based intelligent model can predict OED probability and status in leukoplakia with good calibration and discrimination, which shows potential for decision support to select patients for biopsy/histopathology, obviate unnecessary biopsy, and assist in patient self-monitoring.