The impact of industrial robots on employment in China

As China accelerates automation, the rapid expansion of industrial robots has raised growing concerns about employment restructuring. Using provincial panel data from 2010 to 2019 and a dynamic GMM approach, this paper evaluates how industrial robots influence employment scale, employment structure, and industrial structure. The results show that industrial robots significantly reduce overall employment, indicating substitution effects. Low-skilled employment increases briefly in the early stages of automation due to productivity gains and the creation of auxiliary tasks, but declines as automation deepens. Medium-skilled workers who perform more standardized, routine tasks face greater displacement risks. In contrast, high-skilled employment grows steadily through technological complementarities. At the industrial level, robots continue to compress employment in the primary and secondary sectors, while the tertiary sector absorbs displaced labor as industrial linkages strengthen. The paper recommends a gradual policy strategy that enhances skills, promotes industrial upgrading, and improves social protection to support inclusive and sustainable employment transitions.