Development and Prospective Validation of a Transparent Deep Learning Algorithm for Predicting Need for Mechanical Ventilation

ABSTRACT IMPORTANCE Objective and early identification of hospitalized patients, and particularly those with novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), who may require mechanical ventilation is of great importance and may aid in delivering timely treatment. OBJECTIVE To develop, externally validate and prospectively test a transparent deep learning algorithm for predicting 24 hours in advance the need for mechanical ventilation in hospitalized patients and those with COVID-19. DESIGN Observational cohort study SETTING Two academic medical centers from January 01, 2016 to December 31, 2019 (Retrospective cohorts) and February 10, 2020 to May 4, 2020 (Prospective cohorts). PARTICIPANTS Over 31,000 admissions to the intensive care units (ICUs) at two hospitals. Additionally, 777 patients with COVID-19 patients were used for prospective validation. Patients who were placed on mechanical ventilation within four hours of their admission were excluded. MAIN OUTCOME(S) and MEASURE(S) Electronic health record (EHR) data were extracted on an hourly basis, and a set of 40 features were calculated and passed to an interpretable deep-learning algorithm to predict the future need for mechanical ventilation 24 hours in advance. Additionally, commonly used clinical criteria (based on heart rate, oxygen saturation, respiratory rate, FiO 2 and pH) was used to assess future need for mechanical ventilation. Performance of the algorithms were evaluated using the area under receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value. RESULTS After applying exclusion criteria, the external validation cohort included 3,888 general ICU and 402 COVID-19 patients. The performance of the model (AUC) with a 24-hour prediction horizon at the validation site was 0.882 for the general ICU population and 0.918 for patients with COVID-19. In comparison, commonly used clinical criteria and the ROX score achieved AUCs in the range of 0.773 – 0.782 and 0.768 – 0.810 for the general ICU population and patients with COVID-19, respectively. CONCLUSIONS and RELEVANCE A generalizable and transparent deep-learning algorithm improves on traditional clinical criteria to predict the need for mechanical ventilation in hospitalized patients, including those with COVID-19. Such an algorithm may help clinicians with optimizing timing of tracheal intubation, better allocation of mechanical ventilation resources and staff, and improve patient care.