Prehistoric demographic fluctuations in China inferred from radiocarbon data and their linkage with climate change over the past 50,000 years

Historic human–climate interactions have been of interest to scholars for a long time. However, exploring the long-term relation between prehistoric demography and climate change remains challenging because of the absence of an effective proxy for population reconstruction. Recently, the summed probability distribution of archaeological radiocarbon dates has been widely used as a proxy for human population levels, although researchers recognize that such usage must be cautious. This approach is rarely applied in China due to the lack of a comprehensive archaeological radiocarbon database, and thus the relation between human population and climate change in China remains ambiguous. Herein we systematically compile an archaeological 14C database (n = 4656) for China for the first time. Using the summed probability distributions of the radiocarbon dates alongside high-resolution palaeoclimatic records, we show that: 1) the commencement of major population expansion in China was at 9 ka cal BP, occurring after the appearance of agriculture and associated with the early Holocene climate amelioration; 2) the major periods of small population size and population decline, i.e., 46–43 ka cal BP, 41–38 ka cal BP, 31–28.6 ka cal BP, 25–23.5 ka cal BP, 18–15.2 ka cal BP, and 13–11.4 ka cal BP, correspond well with the dating of abrupt cold events in the Last Glacial (LG) such as the Heinrich and Younger Dryas (YD) events, while the major periods of high-level population in the Holocene, i.e., 8.5–7 ka cal BP, 6.5–5 ka cal BP and 4.3–2.8 ka cal BP, occur at the same times as warm-moist conditions and Neolithic cultural prosperity, suggesting that abrupt cooling in the climate profoundly limited population size and that mild climate episodes spurred a growth in prehistoric populations and advances in human cultures; and 3) populations in different regions experience different growth trajectories and that their responses to climate change are varied, due to both regional environmental diversity and the attainment of different levels of adaptive strategies.