Atherogenic index of plasma and cardiovascular disease risk in cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome stage 1 to 3: a longitudinal study

Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains a major contributor to the global disease burden. Previous studies have established a link between the atherogenic index of plasma (AIP) and CVD. However, it remains unclear whether cumulative AIP and AIP control influence the future incidence of CVD in individuals with Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic (CKM) syndrome. This study aims to explore the association between cumulative AIP, AIP control levels, and the risk of CVD in individuals with CKM syndrome from stages 1 to 3. Methods Participants with CKM syndrome were drawn from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). Cumulative AIP was calculated using triglycerides (TG) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), while AIP control levels were categorized into four groups via k-means clustering. CVD was defined by self-reported heart disease or stroke. Multivariable logistic regression and restricted cubic spline analysis were employed to examine the association between AIP and incident CVD in individuals with CKM syndrome. Results A total of 793 participants (18.84%) developed CVD. After adjusting for confounders, cumulative AIP were associated with the developing CVD (OR=1.139, 95% CI: 1.017-1.275, P=0.0245). Compared to group 1 (best AIP control), the OR (95% CI) for incident CVD were 1.278 (0.959-1.702) for group 2, 1.329 (1.076-1.641) for group 3, and 1.195 (0.974-1.465) for group 4. Restricted cubic spline regression indicated the relationship between cumulative AIP and CVD risk is linear (P for nonlinear = 0.3377). Conclusions In middle-aged and elderly individuals with CKM syndrome, higher cumulative AIP and poorer AIP control were associated with an elevated incidence of CVD. These findings suggest that enhanced assessment of the AIP index could inform targeted prevention strategies for CVD in the context of CKM syndrome.