The traffic concentration effects of urban navigation services

Abstract The collective impact of navigation services remains unclear: while often beneficial to individual drivers, they can unintentionally reshape urban traffic patterns. We simulate their impact in Florence, Milan, and Rome (Italy), integrating GPS data, road networks, and route recommendations from leading providers. We identify a concentration effect: as adoption increases, route diversity declines, and traffic and emissions converge onto fewer roads. At full adoption, route diversity decreases by up to 14% compared to a baseline where recommendations are ignored. Moreover, navigation services reduce CO 2 emissions at low adoption levels, but these benefits diminish, disappear, or even reverse beyond a city- and service-specific threshold. We replicate our experiments in an abstract setting, obtaining results consistent with those observed in real-world cities.