Indicators of Business Recessions and Revivals in India: 1951-1982

The objective of this paper is to prepare a systematic list of indicators of business recessions and revivals in India for the period 1951-1982. The idea is that an index based on these indicators will enable us to conclude with some confidence that the recessionary or revival trends have become sufficiently wide spread so that the general situation may be described properly as being one of business recession or revival. The paper focuses on growth cycles and examines the leads and lags of 94 monthly series in relation to the turning points of the cycle in the overall economic activity.