The impact of climate change on wind and solar photovoltaic power potential and distribution in China

The cleanliness and sustainability of renewable energy resources, primarily wind and solar, position them as key technological choices in the global transformation to low-carbon development. However, as the share of RE in the power system continues to grow, research on the impacts of climate change on renewable energy is garnering attention. This study investigates the effects of climate change on the potential and distribution of wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) power in China, focusing on the implications for renewable energy adequacy, cost, and future trends. The results indicate that climate change has a slightly negative effect on China’s overall wind and solar energy potential nationwide, ranging from −2.8% to −0.5%. However, there is variation among provinces, ranging from −14.0% to 14.6%. Additionally, the impact of climate change on wind and solar resources varies spatially, an increase is observed in southern regions, while a decrease occurs in northern areas. The findings suggest that changes such as wind speed and solar radiation caused by climate change may diminish the potential for low-cost renewable energy power generation while augmenting the potential for high-cost power generation, which may result in higher overall power generation costs in China than previously anticipated. By considering the impacts of climate change, this study offers actionable insights for policymakers to enhance the deployment of renewable energy projects in the south provinces, for northern provinces, policy makers may exercise greater caution when planning wind and solar projects, taking into account not only current economic viability but also the potential for future cost fluctuations attributable to climate change.