How do Green Credit Policies Affect Carbon Emissions? Evidence from 30 Provinces and Cities in China

The Green Credit (GC) policy is a government-mandated initiative designed to reconcile environmental governance with sustainable economic development. Examining the empirical impact of GC implementation on carbon emissions (CE) mitigation is a critical inquiry in environmental economics. Utilizing province-level panel data from 30 Chinese administrative divisions, this investigation employs three analytical frameworks: baseline regression modeling, mediation effect analysis, and spatial econometric estimation. The analysis empirically demonstrates that GC mechanisms facilitate CE reduction through three structural pathways: industrial restructuring (IS), technological advancement (TA), and energy efficiency optimization (EE). These findings provide an empirical basis for policymakers to refine GC regulatory frameworks, enhance policy efficacy in eco-economic coordination, and accelerate low-carbon transition processes.