计算机科学
工作流程
过程(计算)
人工智能
特征(语言学)
背景(考古学)
机器学习
时间序列
领域(数学分析)
迭代和增量开发
系列(地层学)
编码(集合论)
领域知识
基于案例的推理
概率预测
数据挖掘
特征选择
一致性预测
源代码
作者
Xiaohan Zhang,Tian Gao,Monica Xiao Cheng,Beibei Pan,Ze Guo,Ying Liu,Xiaoyu Tao,Liu, Qi
标识
DOI:10.48550/arxiv.2511.08947
摘要
Time series forecasting plays a crucial role in decision-making across many real-world applications. Despite substantial progress, most existing methods still treat forecasting as a static, single-pass regression problem. In contrast, human experts form predictions through iterative reasoning that integrates temporal features, domain knowledge, case-based references, and supplementary context, with continuous refinement. In this work, we propose Alphacast, an interaction-driven agentic reasoning framework that enables accurate time series forecasting with training-free large language models. Alphacast reformulates forecasting as an expert-like process and organizes it into a multi-stage workflow involving context preparation, reasoning-based generation, and reflective evaluation, transforming forecasting from a single-pass output into a multi-turn, autonomous interaction process. To support diverse perspectives commonly considered by human experts, we develop a lightweight toolkit comprising a feature set, a knowledge base, a case library, and a contextual pool that provides external support for LLM-based reasoning. Extensive experiments across multiple benchmarks show that Alphacast generally outperforms representative baselines. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/echo01-ai/AlphaCast.
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