Low-carbon policy and industrial structure upgrading: Based on the perspective of strategic interaction among local governments

China has continuously implemented the low-carbon policy in response to global climate change. Guiding the low-carbon development of economy and achieving the upgrading of industrial structure have become important way to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. Using panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2006 to 2019, this paper constructed spatial Durbin model and explored the impact of low-carbon policy on industrial structure upgrading from the perspective of strategic interaction. The results show that the strategic interaction form of local governmental low-carbon policy is a “race to the top”. Under the intergovernmental strategic interaction, the low-carbon policy not only significantly improve the level of rationalization and supererogation of the local industrial structure, but also industrial structure of spatially related regions. The heterogeneity test shows that there are temporal and regional differences in the impact of low-carbon policy on industrial structure upgrading. Specifically, the impact of low-carbon policy on industrial structure rationalization is the most evident in the western region, while the impact on industrial structure supererogation is the greatest in the eastern region. Furthermore, market segmentation inhibits the impact of low-carbon policy on industrial structure upgrading, and technological progress strengthens the impact.