A rational decision-making approach based on Bayesian network and BDI model for autonomous driving system

The safety of decision-making in Autonomous Driving Systems (ADSs) is a challenging issue, which is very important for ADS development. As a highly acceptable decision method, Bayesian Network (BN) has attracted more and more attention, therefore, its decision confidence and robustness have also become a focus. Since BN is a form of reasoning based on probability, for the decision results with low confidence (that is, the probability values of several optional decision actions have a small difference), when the data is slightly disturbed, it is likely to change, resulting in serious consequences such as car crash. To generate safe decision-making, we innovatively propose a rational Bayesian network decision-making approach based on BDI model. It helps to improve the decision confidence of the traditional BN. BDI model is a well-known theory of inferencing agents' mental states (belief, desire and intention). We use it to guide the decision-making process of Bayesian network. According to the domain knowledge of ADS, we introduce and design rule-based intention inference for the decision agent to build a Bayesian network with BDI-layer. And for other uncertain agents in the environment, we utilize LSTM model to predict their intentions and provide scenario information for the construction of the above network. To sum up, we propose a rational decision-making approach based on Bayesian network guided by BDI model. Our novel approach makes the traditional Bayesian network decision more humanized and improves the confidence of decision results. Finally, we take the lane-change and overtaking scenario as an example to illustrate our approach in detail and demonstrate the effectiveness in improving decision confidence.