Measuring US regional economic uncertainty

Abstract This study constructs a set of regional economic uncertainty (EU) indices for the United States based on Internet search volumes. These indices shed light on EU at the regional and local levels along with national EU. Although aggregate state‐level EU is highly synchronized, idiosyncratic state EU nonetheless exhibits large variations. Similar to aggregate state‐level EU, idiosyncratic state EU is generally countercyclical. There is also a spillover effect among EU in US regions. Lastly, we show that idiosyncratic state EU foreshadows declines in local employment and output.