Regional responses of ecosystem service security to land use changes and driving mechanisms: Insights from nearly 40 years of observations in Shaanxi, China

Since the early 21st century, rapid economic growth has intensified urban expansion and industrial activities, placing immense pressure on ecosystem services. This study examines the relationship between land use changes and ecosystem service security in Shaanxi Province from 1985 to 2022 using the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model. A comprehensive weighting method integrating the entropy weight method and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is applied, along with the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model to analyze driving mechanisms. The results indicate that: (1) Land use changes in Shaanxi Province have accelerated significantly, with the comprehensive land use dynamic index increasing from 1.01 % in 1985–1995–2.88 % in 2015–2022, while high-density land transfer areas have expanded, with their centre shifting southward. (2) The value of ecosystem services has steadily increased from 417.655 billion CNY in 1985–452.722 billion CNY in 2022; however, the rate of this increase has slowed due to urbanization. (3) Overall, ecosystem service security has improved, but central and urban areas experience significant ecological pressure, with the proportion of extremely insecure areas rising from 3.05 % in 1985 to 8.94 % in 2022. (4) The driving factor analysis reveals that land use/land cover (LULC) changes predominantly influence ecosystem service security. Still, the contributions of nighttime light intensity and population density have significantly increased. The XGBoost model further reveals that human activities are increasingly influencing the ecosystem. The study proposes ecological protection zoning and targeted response strategies for different regions, providing scientific support for regional ecosystem security management and sustainable development . • Land use changes in Shaanxi significantly affect ecological services. • The value of ecological services increases, but the growth rate is affected by urbanization. • LULC and SE lead ecological service security changes. • Shaanxi needs targeted strategies to balance urbanization and ecology.