Application of an artificial neural network for predicting the potential chemotherapy benefit of patients with gastric cancer after radical surgery

Abstract Background Artificial neural network models have a strong self-learning ability and can deal with complex biological information, but there is no artificial neural network model for predicting the benefits of adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with gastric cancer. Methods The clinicopathological data of patients who underwent radical resection of gastric cancer from January 2010 to September 2014 were analyzed retrospectively. Patients who underwent surgery combined with adjuvant chemotherapy were randomly divided into a training cohort (70%) and a validation cohort (30%). An artificial neural network model (potential-CT-benefit-ANN) was established, and its ability to predict the potential benefit of chemotherapy was evaluated by the C-index. The prognostic prediction and stratification ability of potential-CT-benefit-ANN and the eighth American Joint Committee on Cancer staging system were compared by receiver operating characteristic curves and Kaplan-Meier curves. Results In both the training and validation cohort, potential-CT-benefit-ANN shows good prediction accuracy for potential adjuvant chemotherapy benefit. The receiver operating characteristic curve showed that the prediction accuracy of potential-CT-benefit-ANN was better than that of the eighth American Joint Committee on Cancer staging system in all groups. The calibration plots showed that the predicted prognosis of potential-CT-benefit-ANN was highly consistent with the actual value. The survival curves showed that potential-CT-benefit-ANN could stratify prognosis well for all groups and performed significantly better than the eighth AJCC staging system. Conclusion The potential-CT-benefit-ANN model developed in this study can accurately predict the potential benefits of adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with stage II/III gastric cancer. The benefit score based on potential-CT-benefit-ANN can predict the long-term prognosis of patients with adjuvant chemotherapy and has good prognostic stratification ability.