Low-carbon transition or low-carbon trap? — An instrumental variable regression analysis based on carbon decoupling and energy equity

Although the low-carbon transition has enormous potential for improving economic and environmental benefits, it may also lead to social equity issues, trapping certain regions in a low-carbon dilemma. Based on panel data from the Yangtze River Economic Belt for the period 2007–2019, this study empirically analyzes the impact of carbon decoupling on energy equity, employing the carbon emission trading policy and natural wetlands as joint instrumental variables. The findings reveal that: (1) from 2007 to 2019, the average level of carbon decoupling in the Yangtze River Economic Belt was recorded at 0.415, maintaining a weak decoupling state overall and nearly forming an "inverted V" shape; (2) in the instrumental variable regression results, for every 1% increase in the level of carbon decoupling, the energy equity in the Yangtze River Economic Belt decreased by an average of 0.095% (p < .01); (3) environmental burden played a partial mediating role between carbon decoupling and energy equity, with the mediation effect value being −0.007 (p < .05); (4) green energy consumption and marketization can variably mitigate the adverse effects of carbon decoupling. Examining the sustainability of the economic-environmental system from the perspective of energy equity contributes to shaping a low-carbon economy that maintains social justice and sustainability, thereby avoiding falling into a low-carbon trap.