The diffusion of prefabrication technology and its potential for CO2 emissions reduction in China: A combined system dynamics and agent-based study

The building sector is one of the largest CO₂ emitters. Prefabrication technology (PT) shows remarkable potential for reducing CO₂ emissions during the material and construction phases of the building life cycle. However, the diffusion of PT in China is still in its infancy, and more targeted policies are necessary to accelerate the adoption of PT. This study proposes a combined system dynamics and agent-based modeling approach to include the technology adoption behavior of enterprises at the micro level, and the market effects and policies at the macro level. This approach provides a more comprehensive modeling approach and analysis for technology diffusion. Results show that the diffusion of PT has experienced three phases: (i) an initial phase that lasted until 2016, (ii) a mandatory adoption phase from 2016 to 2025, and (iii) a mandatory and market adoption phase that will last from 2025 to 2035 under appropriate policy mixes. A policy mix with moderate intensity is the most efficient in terms of balancing the policy effect and feasibility. The potential of CO₂ reduction depends on both the diffusion rate of PT and the floor area of new buildings. Mandatory adoption is more effective than incentive-based policies in reducing CO₂ emissions.