Early Prediction of Acute Biliary Pancreatitis Using Clinical and Abdominal CT Features

Background Assessment of the biliary origin of acute pancreatitis (AP) is crucial because it affects patient treatment to avoid recurrence. Although CT is systematically performed to determine severity in AP, its usefulness in assessing AP biliary origin has not been evaluated. Purpose To assess abdominal CT features associated with acute biliary pancreatitis (ABP) and to evaluate the predictive value of a combination of CT and clinical data for determining a biliary origin in a first episode of AP. Materials and Methods From December 2014 to May 2019, all consecutive patients who presented with a first episode of AP and with at least 6 months of follow-up were retrospectively reviewed. Evidence of gallstones was mandatory for a clinical diagnosis of ABP. Abdominal CT images were reviewed by two abdominal radiologists. Univariable and multivariable statistical analyses were performed, and a nomogram was constructed on the basis of the combination of clinical and CT features. This nomogram was validated in a further independent internal cohort of patients. Results A total of 271 patients (mean age ± standard deviation, 56 years ± 20; 160 men) were evaluated. Of these, 170 (63%) had ABP. At multivariable analysis, age (odds ratio [OR], 1.06; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.09; P < .001), alanine aminotransferase level (OR, 1.00; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.01; P = .009), gallbladder gallstone (OR, 15.59; 95% CI: 4.61, 68.62; P < .001), choledochal ring sign (OR, 5.73; 95% CI: 2.11, 17.05; P < .001), liver spontaneous attenuation (OR, 1.07; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.11; P < .001), and duodenal thickening (OR, 0.17; 95% CI: 0.03, 0.61; P = .01) were independently associated with ABP. The matching nomogram combining both clinical and CT features displayed an area under the curve of 0.94 (95% CI: 0.91, 0.97) in the study sample (n = 271) and 0.91 (95% CI: 0.84, 0.99) in the validation cohort (n = 51). Conclusion Abdominal CT provided useful features for diagnosis of acute biliary pancreatitis (ABP). Combining CT and clinical features in a nomogram showed good diagnostic performance for early diagnosis of ABP. © RSNA, 2021 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Chang in this issue.