Prognostic factors in IgG4-related disease: a long-term monocentric Chinese cohort study

Patients with IgG4-related disease (IgG4-RD) suffer high relapse rates during long-term treatment, but factors that predict relapse outcomes are not well established. In the present study, we aimed to identify predictive factors for treatment resistance and disease relapse in a Chinese IgG4-RD cohort. This study enrolled 102 patients newly diagnosed with IgG4-RD. Disease prognosis was determined by evaluating disease activity and dosage of glucocorticoids. Predictive factors for refractory and relapsed disease were identified by univariate analysis and Cox regression. Among the 102 patients, 78 cases received medical treatment with regular follow-up (21 [6-111] months). During the follow-up period, 55 (70.5%) patients sustained clinical remission, and 23 (29.5%) patients suffered refractory or relapsed disease. The relapse rate of the patients with IgG4-RD was significantly higher among patients who stopped taking medicine than among those who continued treatment with glucocorticoids (GC) + immunosuppressor (IM). Serum TNF-α ≥ 13 pg/mL, sIL-2R ≥ 1010 U/mL, total cholesterol < 3.55 mmol/L, low-density lipoprotein < 2.0 mmol/L, IgG ≥ 20.2 g/L, and drug withdrawal were predictive factors for refractory and relapsed IgG4-RD. Multivariate Cox regression revealed that both sIL-2R and TNF-α were independent risk factors for refractory and relapsed disease. The combination of GC and IM treatment was an independent protective factor against refractory and relapsed IgG4-RD. High serum levels of sIL-2R and TNF-α may be informative risk factors for refractory and relapsed IgG4-RD. Our data suggest that a combination treatment of GC along with IM may be protective against refractory and relapsed IgG4-RD.