Spatiotemporal evolution and scenario simulation of ecological resilience in major grain producing areas: a case study of the northeast plain, China

Against the backdrop of global climate change and intensified human activities, the stability of regional ecosystems is subject to multiple pressures. Taking the Northeast Plain as a case study, this research analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution, driving mechanisms, and optimization pathways of ecological resilience from 2000 to 2024. The results indicate that: (1) ecological resilience has generally increased, exhibiting a spatial pattern characterized by “higher in mountainous areas and lower in plains,” with significant positive spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I ≈ 0.79—0.81) and a northward shift of the center of gravity; (2) the driving mechanism has shifted from natural dominance to a coupled natural–social system, with temperature as the dominant factor (q ≈ 0.28), followed by road network density (q ≈ 0.23), and a pronounced threshold effect is observed; (3) land-use conflict plays a critical mediating role, leading to the formation of control zones (59.5%), coordination zones (32.1%), risk zones (5.8%), and potential zones (2.6%); (4) multi-scenario simulations show that urban development reduces resilience, ecological protection enhances connectivity, and the coordinated development scenario yields the most favorable outcomes. Overall, ecological resilience is jointly shaped by natural constraints and human activities, and its enhancement requires the optimization of land use and zoning regulation to achieve coordinated improvements in ecological integrity and development.