A PRELIMINARY STUDY ON PREDICTION OF MAXIMUM MAGNITUDE OF RESERVOIR INDUCED EARTHQUAKE

Since the prediction method for maximum magnitude of reservoir induced seismicity by using comprehensive effecting parameter E-value was proposed in 1987,it has been applied to many largescale reservoirs with good effects.After that,a group of reservoir induced earthquakes were confirmed in the past 20 years.The applicability of the model is worth studying.Based on collection of new cases of reservoir induced earthquakes,48 reservoir induced earthquake cases are selected in the paper. A new empirical prediction model of the maximum magnitude with E-value is statistically obtained and compared with the old one.At last,the upper limit of the maximum magnitude of reservoir induced earthquake is estimated to be less than M7.