Game analysis on prefabricated building evolution based on dynamic revenue risks in China

Compared with the on-site construction, prefabricated buildings provide benefits such as reducing construction time, increasing resource efficiency, minimizing construction waste, and enhancing safety. The main impediments of implementing prefabricated buildings are initial cost and value justification of the whole project. Using evolutionary game theory and system dynamics, this study developed new models to determine the revenue risk related to the use of prefabricated buildings. Four scenarios have been derived based on the assumptions determined by the interests of the developer and the owner or government. The developed models reveal that the stability of the system is closely related to the incremental cost, income and risk associated with the development of prefabricated buildings. Factors such as the profitability of on-site construction projects, the incremental cost of prefabricated construction projects, the total benefits of prefabricated projects, and the incremental risks of prefabricated construction projects impact the game behaviors of developers and owners. A system dynamic model was then used to analyze and verify changes in the behavior of both parties of the assembly of the building demand side and supply side. Based on a case study, the results show that the key to promoting the development of prefabricated building projects is to increase the incremental income of developers in prefabricated building projects. The proposed method in this study overcomes the limitations of complete rationality in the traditional game theory and can more effectively fit and explain the real complexity of prefabricated building projects. The method provides a reference for incentive policies to further promote the prefabricated building projects.