Economic Drivers of China's Declining Fertility: The Role of Digital Inclusive Finance and Household Debt

ABSTRACT The declining birth rate in China has resulted in a decrease in the labour force, increased ageing of the population and constrained economic growth potential, making the increase in the birth rate a priority. This study explores the connections among digital inclusive finance, household debt and fertility rates using microdata from the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) for the years 2011, 2013, 2015, 2017 and 2019, along with data on digital financial inclusion in China. The baseline study finds that both digital inclusive finance and household debt are negatively correlated with fertility rates, though there exists a positive association between digital inclusive finance and household debt. Heterogeneity studies show that the impacts of household debt and digital inclusive finance on fertility rates vary by region and household income level. In both the eastern and central‐western regions, digital inclusive finance significantly affects family fertility decisions, whereas household debt significantly negatively affects family fertility decisions in central‐western areas. High‐income families are more positively influenced by digital inclusive finance, whereas low‐income families are primarily negatively affected by household debt. Specific types of debt, such as housing and education, have a significant negative impact on fertility rates. Policy research also found that targeted reserve requirement ratio policies for inclusive finance are beneficial for increasing the birth rate. This paper provides empirical evidence for policymakers, helping them design more effective policies to reduce the economic burden on families, enhance family welfare and promote an increase in birth rates.