Convergence or divergence? Unraveling the global development pattern of forest carbon sink

The sustainability and stability of global forest carbon sinks confront challenges arising from deforestation, forest fires, and land use changes. The trajectory of forest carbon sink development, whether convergent or divergent, not only influences the global carbon balance but also holds direct implications for climate policies. Fostering international collaboration in the collective establishment of carbon sinks is essential to alleviate climate change. A critical imperative lies in comprehending the distribution and dynamics of global forest carbon sinks. This paper, within this context, examines the convergence trends of forest carbon sinks among 147 countries. Utilizing a data-driven algorithm, the presence of club convergence is test, followed by an analysis of the influence of economic and social factors on club convergence. While uniform convergence in forest carbon stock across the entire sample is not evident, club convergence is indeed identified among the 147 countries. This study, informed by club convergence outcomes, provides insights into the global development pattern of forest carbon sinks. Additionally, factors such as GDP, land use, temperature fluctuations, and energy consumption are pinpointed as catalysts for the formation of convergence clubs. These findings offer valuable insights into regional variations in forest carbon absorption capacity, contributing to the formulation of more effective climate policies. Achieving environmental, economic, and socially sustainable development demands a nuanced equilibrium between economic growth and forest preservation.