Environmental response to growth in the marine economy and urbanization: A heterogeneity analysis of 11 Chinese coastal regions using a panel vector autoregressive model

Abstract The effect of urbanization on the environment in coastal regions has been extensively examined in previous studies, but neither the reverse effect nor the role of the marine economy has been investigated. To address this gap, this study uses a panel vector autoregressive model to further explore the interactions between marine economic growth, marine pollution, and urbanization in 11 Chinese coastal provinces/municipalities from 2000 to 2016. The per capita gross ocean product (GOP) and the per capita volume of industrial wastewater discharged directly into the sea decreased during the research period, whereas the urbanization rate increased. The spatial pattern of the main polluted areas showed a shift from north to south. Marine economic growth had a single-direction influence on marine pollution and urbanization in coastal regions, implying that urban expansion did not increase the ocean output. Consistent with previous findings, urban expansion aggravated environmental damage to the ocean. According to both impulse response analysis and variance decomposition, urbanization had a significant role in explaining variation in the three factors examined in this study. In addition, according to heterogeneity analysis, the three factors were most affected in the mid-income regions and southern coastal areas, while the areas with more developed marine services could better resist the negative effects of marine pollution and urban expansion. The policy implications of increasing the proportion of the marine economy and of controlling the acceleration of urbanization are explored.