Which factors define success during the basketball overtimes?

This study investigates how scoring before overtime and various contextual factors influence outcomes during overtime in three professional basketball leagues. We collected data from the National Basketball Association (NBA), Euroleague, and Spanish Professional League (ACB), consisting of n = 275, n = 37, and n = 59 games, respectively, and played in the seasons 2019–2022. Our analysis included variables such as the team that tied the score, game location, opponent strength, maximum point difference during the game, and the last five minutes of regulation play. Binomial logistic regression revealed that the team scoring the tying basket did not significantly affect overtime outcomes in any league. Notably, in the ACB league, game location and maximum point difference during the game were significant predictors, while in the Euroleague, keeping the game tight was crucial. In contrast, in the NBA, game location and opponent strength were pivotal. Our analysis of predictive accuracy showed differing results across leagues, with the ACB league exhibiting the highest accuracy. These differential results between leagues underscore the importance of tailoring coaching strategies to specific league dynamics, enabling teams to better prepare for the critical moments leading to overtime based on the influence of each contextual factor.