Comprehensive assessment of incidence, mortality, and lifetime risk of ovarian cancer: a global study with forecasts to 2050

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to update the latest epidemiology of ovarian cancer. METHODS: Incidence and mortality data of ovarian cancer were extracted from 2 databases, the GLOBOCAN 2022 and the Global Burden of Disease 2021, to analyze age-standardized rates across 185 countries. The Age-Mortality-Population method and average annual per cent change (AAPC) were employed to calculate the lifetime risk of incidence (LRI) and lifetime risk of mortality (LRM), and to evaluate temporal trends (2000-2021) for ovarian cancer, respectively. Incidence cases and deaths of ovarian cancer were projected to 2050. RESULTS: The number of incidence cases and deaths of ovarian cancer is projected to rise from 300,000 and 200,000 in 2022 to 477,000 and 337,000 by 2050. Low sociodemographic index (SDI) countries are projected to experience increases of 153% in incidence and 165.2% in mortality, while high SDI countries are expected to see modest increases of 21.8% and 36.4%. The overall trend of LRI and LRM decreased from 2000 to 2021. However, LRI in high SDI countries declined from 1.6% to 1.2%, LRM from 1.1% to 0.85%; LRI in low SDI countries increased from 0.46% to 0.63%, LRM from 0.37% to 0.49%. AAPCs for LRI and LRM both increased by >1% in low and low-middle SDI countries, but declined by >1% in high SDI countries. CONCLUSION: The incidence and mortality rates for ovarian cancer are expected to rise, but this burden is distributed unevenly across regions and SDI levels. The stark divergence underscores an urgent need for coordinated efforts to ensure equitable cancer care globally.