When does blockchain-enabled carbon transparency deliver real supply chain decarbonization? A signaling theory perspective

Purpose This study aims to examine the conditions under which blockchain-enabled supply chain carbon transparency (SCCT) generates credible and interpretable signals of decarbonization performance. It explores how blockchain reshapes the signaling environment in supply chains and examines the moderating role of technology uncertainty (TU) in influencing these signaling mechanisms. Design/methodology/approach A quasi-natural experiment was used at the focal firm–customer interface as an observable slice of multi-tier supply chain signaling. Multi-year data were collected from Bloomberg ESG, SPLC and Factiva, covering blockchain adoption events, carbon transparency indicators and dyadic operational carbon footprints across industries. The analysis combined propensity score matching with difference-in-differences estimation to isolate the causal effect of blockchain-enabled transparency, supported by robustness checks and post hoc qualitative triangulation. Findings Blockchain adoption alone is associated with a short-term increase in operational carbon intensity. However, when integrated with SCCT, it reduces emissions by enhancing the verification and interpretability of carbon information. The effect diminishes under high TU, where instability in data interoperability and system reliability weakens the credibility and observability of the signal. Research limitations/implications The study focuses on partner-verifiable operational emissions (Scopes 1 and 2) at the focal firm–primary customer interface, thereby limiting visibility into full supply chain carbon dynamics. Future research should extend to multi-tier networks and examine long-term behavioral changes induced by blockchain-driven transparency. Practical implications Managers should view blockchain not as an automatic solution but as an infrastructure that enhances verifiable, interpretable transparency. Effective decarbonization requires stable technological environments, consistent data protocols and coordinated verification across partners to prevent signal distortion. Originality/value The study refines signaling theory by shifting the focus of credibility from cost and visibility to verifiability and interpretability. It introduces TU as a boundary condition and shows that blockchain serves as a signaling infrastructure that enables verifiable, collectively responsible supply chain decarbonization.